Dean has had more success raising money than Al Gore had, he has millions of dedicated volunteers, many of whom were hitherto apolitical. He has energized the Democratic base. Assuming Dean will lose to George W. Bush, is there any chance a losing Dean campaign will strengthen the Democrats in the long run?

I think it's hard to argue that any losing campaign strengthens its party in the long-run. Even Goldwater '64. In '64 Goldwater dragged down with him 24 Republican House members and two Senators, and helped create an enduring popular belief that the Republican party was anti-civil rights. Yes, I know that conservatives took over the government sixteen years later, but I think the conservative takeover was more due to obvious liberal failures and mistakes, than any increased attention Goldwater may have brought to the cause. (remember, Reagan would never have been elected governor of California if it weren't for Watts)

Goldwater's one big accomplishment was the Southern beachhead, but I don't think Dean has any prospect of doing the equivalent for Democrats in 2004. In 1964 three were numerous liberal Republicans and numerous conservative Democrats. Today the number of liberal Republicans is much smaller than forty years ago; the potential isn’t there for Dean to bring as many liberal Republicans into the Democratic party as Goldwater brought conservative Democrats into his party.

It is possible that true budget conservatives will judge Dean on his record as Vermont governor and vote Democratic, but this would be a consequence of the right side of Dean’s political identity, and not the left side which has been displayed on the campaign. If this were to happen, and the polls suggest nothing like it is happening, it would also be as much a product of Bush's spendthrift ways as anything Dean does.

Certainly there are misaligned people in the Republican party – poor rural whites. But with Dean’s cultural elitism (“G-d, gays, and guns aren’t important”) and perceived disdain for the military, he hardly seems the person to bring these people back into the Democratic fold.

According to this poll, only 3% of Republicans plan to vote for Dean.
http://www.pollingreport.com/

- posted by jsbennett70 @ 6:42 PM